By David Akinmola
Nigeria’s inflation rate fell for the fourth consecutive month to 14.63 per cent in September, offering a fresh indication of easing price pressures, although persistent food costs and rising expenses for households and businesses continue to test the strength of the country’s economic recovery.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in its Consumer Price Index report released on Thursday, said headline inflation declined from 15.39 per cent in August to 14.63 per cent in September, representing a 0.76 percentage-point reduction. The rate was also 6.35 percentage points below the 20.98 per cent recorded in September 2025. <Cite refs={[“turn787805search0″,”turn787805search1”]}/>
The latest figures extend the disinflation trend that began in June, suggesting that the pace at which average consumer prices are rising has moderated. However, the development does not necessarily mean that the cost of living has returned to previous levels, as households continue to contend with the cumulative effect of earlier price increases.
On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation slowed significantly to 0.06 per cent in September from 0.71 per cent in August, indicating that the average price level increased at a much slower pace during the period.
Food inflation remained a major concern, standing at 19.59 per cent year-on-year in September, compared with 20.16 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025. On a month-on-month basis, the NBS data reported a decline in food prices, reflecting movements in items including rice, grains, eggs, vegetables, onions, palm oil and tomatoes. <Cite refs={[“turn787805search0″,”turn787805search1”]}/>
The moderation in food prices is significant because food expenditure accounts for a substantial share of household budgets, particularly among low-income earners, whose capacity to absorb increases in transportation, housing, energy and other essential costs remains limited.
However, the improvement in headline inflation was not uniform across the consumer basket. Core inflation, which excludes agricultural produce and energy prices, rose to 1.11 per cent month-on-month in September from negative 0.06 per cent in August, suggesting that underlying price pressures remain a concern despite the decline in the headline rate. <Cite refs={[“turn787805search0″,”turn787805search3”]}/>
The latest figures present a mixed picture for policymakers. While slower inflation could provide some room for households and businesses to adjust to prevailing economic conditions, sustained improvement will depend on whether the moderation extends across essential goods and services and translates into more affordable living and operating costs.
For businesses, particularly manufacturers, transport operators and retailers, the trajectory of inflation remains important to decisions on inventory, pricing, wages and investment. Persistent increases in operating expenses can constrain consumer demand and limit the ability of companies to expand production, even when the headline inflation rate is declining.
The September figures also come against the backdrop of economic reforms aimed at stabilising public finances
