Despite a massive N20 trillion rally across the Nigerian capital market in 2025, equities have recorded a staggering 40% drop in value, highlighting the volatile and uneven nature of the current investment landscape.
The sharp decline, analysts say, reflects a widening gap between headline market gains and the actual performance of individual stocks—particularly those outside the blue-chip category. While the market as a whole posted impressive numbers driven largely by a few high-capitalisation stocks and initial public offerings (IPOs), a significant number of listed companies suffered double-digit declines, dragging down the broader investor experience.
Market data from the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) shows that while total market capitalisation surged to an all-time high—bolstered by strong activity in the oil and gas, fintech, and telecoms sectors—over 60% of stocks ended the first half of the year in the red. Many retail and mid-tier institutional investors who diversified across the board were hit hardest, with losses concentrated in consumer goods, industrials, and banking equities.
“It’s a tale of two markets,” said Uche Obi, a capital market analyst at Lagos-based Nova Investments. “The headline figures suggest robust market performance, but the underlying story is that many investors are sitting on losses. The rally has been very narrow, with gains concentrated in a few sectors and stocks.”
The market-wide rally was fueled in part by improved macroeconomic outlook, foreign capital inflows, and government reforms aimed at deregulating key sectors. However, rising inflation, interest rate volatility, and concerns over corporate earnings dampened broader investor confidence.
Some investors have also blamed increased speculative activity and market manipulation for the skewed performance. “There’s a disconnect between the market cap growth and actual shareholder value,” said Aisha Mohammed, a portfolio manager with TrustCore Capital. “We saw a lot of price pumping, particularly around newly listed firms, but those gains didn’t filter down to the rest of the market.”
Looking ahead, experts are calling for more transparency, regulatory oversight, and policies that support inclusive growth across all market segments. Without these, they warn, investor participation could decline, despite record-level market valuations.
While the N20 trillion surge highlights renewed investor interest in the Nigerian market, the 40% plunge in stock values serves as a sobering reminder: not all that glitters in the market is gold.
