By David Akinmola
Economic analysts have projected a further decline in Nigeria’s inflation rate for September 2025, citing easing food prices, improved agricultural output, and sustained stability in the foreign exchange market as key drivers.
According to market experts, the moderation follows several months of gradual deceleration in headline inflation, which has been trending downward since mid-2025 after peaking earlier in the year.
The anticipated slowdown reflects a combination of government interventions in food supply, stronger naira performance, and improved distribution networks across major cities.
Analysts at several financial institutions noted that while inflation remains elevated, the pace of price increases is expected to ease slightly, driven mainly by seasonal harvests and reduced import pressures.
“The September inflation data is likely to show a modest decline as food prices stabilize due to increased market supply from the harvest season,” said one Lagos-based economist. “In addition, recent foreign exchange reforms and improved liquidity at the official window have helped curb imported inflation.”
They added that energy prices, which had been a major contributor to inflation earlier in the year, have shown signs of stability following better product availability and moderation in global oil prices.
Experts also linked the expected decline to improved monetary policy coordination by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), which has tightened liquidity and raised interest rates to tame inflationary pressures.
However, they warned that structural challenges such as high logistics costs, insecurity in key farming regions, and weak industrial output could slow the pace of disinflation in the coming months.
“Nigeria is still grappling with core inflation pressures from transportation, rent, and services,” an analyst at a Lagos-based research firm said. “But the overall direction is encouraging, and if the current policy stance is sustained, inflation could trend lower in the fourth quarter.”
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release the official inflation data for September later this month. If projections hold, it will mark the third consecutive month of decline, offering cautious optimism for consumers and policymakers ahead of year-end spending pressures.
