By David Akinmola
Nigeria’s cryptocurrency ecosystem may face a major shift toward peer-to-peer (P2P) transactions as traders brace for the implementation of the government’s new digital asset tax regime expected to take effect in 2026, industry stakeholders have warned.
Under the proposed framework, capital gains from cryptocurrency trades will attract taxes similar to those applied to other financial assets.
While the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) argues that the measure will improve transparency and boost government revenue, crypto operators and analysts say the plan could unintentionally drive users away from regulated exchanges.
According to stakeholders, many retail traders—who currently rely on centralised exchanges for convenience—may switch to P2P platforms to avoid additional reporting obligations and tax deductions.
They add that the move could further complicate government efforts to track digital asset flows, curb fraud, and strengthen anti-money-laundering compliance.
A cryptocurrency analyst, Tunde Aina, said the tax could “push activity underground,” warning that Nigeria risks repeating the pattern seen in 2021, when the banking ban on crypto transactions triggered an explosion of P2P activity across the country.
“If regulation makes compliance too costly for everyday users, the market will simply migrate to channels where enforcement is weaker,” he said.
Exchanges operating in Nigeria are also expressing concern. Some say the tax will increase operational and compliance costs, which may discourage new investments and innovation in the sector.
Others warn that inconsistent policy signals could undermine Nigeria’s ambition to position itself as a digital-finance hub in Africa.
However, some experts argue that clear guidelines and industry consultations could help Nigeria design a tax regime that protects government revenue without stifling growth.
They urge policymakers to adopt a balanced approach that recognises the country’s high youth engagement in digital assets.
With more than 22 million Nigerians estimated to hold or trade crypto, according to industry data, stakeholders say the government must ensure that taxation does not push one of the world’s most active crypto markets further into the shadows.
The final version of the digital asset tax framework is expected to be unveiled later next year ahead of its rollout in 2026.
