By David Akinmola
Nigeria’s inflation rate for January 2026 is projected to remain broadly unchanged or rise slightly, as easing food prices compete with persistent cost pressures across the economy, analysts have said.
Early estimates place headline inflation within the 15.15 to 16.25 per cent range, reflecting post-holiday moderation in staple food prices alongside continued pressures from fuel costs, seasonal supply adjustments and import-dependent goods.
Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of Arthur Steven Asset Management Limited, Olatunde Amolegbe, said inflation is likely to come in flat or record a marginal uptick.
“On inflation, we see either the rate coming in flat or a slight upward nudge,” he said, citing relatively stable food and energy prices after the festive period, improved exchange-rate conditions and stronger external reserves.
He, however, noted that rising system liquidity could influence the stance of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), with the possibility of maintaining current policy parameters or tightening further if inflationary pressures persist.
Head of Treasury at Odunniga Corporation Limited, Olabode Odunniga, said the broader disinflation trend could continue, supported by structural reforms, improving foreign exchange liquidity and increased domestic refining capacity.
He said inflation may peak in the first quarter of 2026, partly due to base effects, before moderating gradually over the rest of the year.
Odunniga cautioned that exchange-rate volatility, agricultural output performance and lingering food supply constraints remain key risks that could exert upward pressure on prices.
Meanwhile, findings from a January 2026 Lagos market survey conducted by Nairametrics Research showed mixed price movements compared with December 2025. Of the 68 items tracked, 49 recorded month-on-month declines, particularly staples such as pepper, tomatoes, yams, potatoes, beans and local palm oil.
However, some protein and processed food items, including frozen chicken, vegetable oil and certain beverages, posted price increases, indicating persistent pressures in specific categories.
Analysts said the January inflation outcome will provide an early signal for monetary policy direction in the first quarter, as evolving liquidity conditions and supply-side factors continue to shape price dynamics.
