By David Akinmola
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate could rise to 32.34 per cent in December, driven largely by increased festive-season spending, higher food prices and persistent cost pressures across key consumer segments, according to a new economic report.
The report notes that heightened demand for food, transportation, clothing and other consumer goods during the Yuletide period is likely to exert additional pressure on already elevated prices, particularly in urban centres. It adds that supply-side constraints, including logistics costs and exchange-rate pass-through, continue to amplify inflationary pressures.
Analysts said food inflation remains the dominant driver, with prices of staples such as rice, poultry, cooking oil and vegetables recording sharp increases in the weeks leading up to the festive season.
Transport fares and hospitality costs also rose as travel and social activities peaked during the period.
The report further attributed the inflation outlook to structural factors, including currency weakness, high energy costs and limited domestic production capacity, which have reduced the economy’s ability to absorb seasonal demand shocks.
An economist at a Lagos-based financial advisory firm said the December inflation estimate reflects a familiar year-end pattern but warned that the current level remains a concern.
“Festive demand typically pushes prices up in December, but the difference this time is the already high inflation base. This limits consumers’ purchasing power and deepens cost-of-living pressures,” the economist said.
Despite the anticipated increase, analysts expect inflationary momentum to moderate in the early months of the new year as seasonal demand eases, although risks remain elevated due to foreign exchange volatility and energy price adjustments.
The report noted that sustained disinflation would depend on improvements in food supply, exchange-rate stability and policy measures aimed at reducing structural bottlenecks in production and distribution.
Nigeria’s inflation rate has remained elevated in recent months, posing challenges for households, businesses and monetary policymakers, with price stability continuing to be a key focus for economic managers.
