Nigeria’s headline inflation rate moderated further to 14.45 per cent in November, undershooting the 15 per cent benchmark projected in the 2025 Federal Government budget and reinforcing the ongoing disinflation trend.
Data released yesterday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that year-on-year inflation declined by 1.6 percentage points from 16.06 per cent recorded in October. Compared with November 2024, when inflation stood at 34.6 per cent, the current figure represents a sharp 20.15 percentage-point drop.
However, the moderation in annual inflation masked a slight acceleration in monthly price pressures. Month-on-month headline inflation rose to 1.22 per cent in November, up by 0.29 percentage points from October, indicating that the pace of increase in average prices was higher than in the preceding month.
The NBS report also showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 130.5 points in November, from 128.9 points in October, reflecting a 1.6-point rise.
Inflation has been on a steady downward trajectory since April, largely supported by improving macroeconomic conditions. The headline rate eased to 23.71 per cent in April, 22.97 per cent in May and 22.22 per cent in June.
The decline persisted in July (21.88 per cent), August (20.12 per cent) and September (18.02 per cent), before settling at 16.05 per cent in October.
A notable feature of the latest data is the divergence between urban and rural inflation trends. On a month-on-month basis, urban inflation slowed to 0.95 per cent in November, down from 1.14 per cent in October.
In contrast, rural inflation accelerated sharply to 1.88 per cent, from 0.45 per cent in the previous month.
Food inflation also declined significantly on a year-on-year basis, falling to 11.08 per cent in November 2025, compared with 39.93 per cent in November 2024 a drop of 28.85 percentage points. While the NBS attributed much of this decline to a change in the base year, analysts note that increased food imports have also played a role.
On a month-on-month basis, however, food inflation rebounded to 1.13 per cent in November from a contraction of 0.37 per cent in October.
The increase was driven by higher average prices of items such as tomatoes, cassava tubers, periwinkle, ground pepper, eggs, crayfish, melon and onions.
According to the NBS, food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the largest contributors to headline inflation in November, accounting for 5.78 per cent on a year-on-year basis and 0.49 per cent month-on-month.
Analysts argue that, beyond recent macroeconomic reforms that have helped stabilise the exchange rate, weak purchasing power among households is also contributing to the disinflation trend. They note, however, that key inflationary pressures such as insecurity, high energy costs, exchange rate vulnerabilities and poor infrastructure—remain largely unresolved.
Reflecting this cautious outlook, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), at the end of its 303rd meeting last month, retained the Monetary Policy Rate at 27 per cent, while keeping the Cash Reserve Ratio and Liquidity Ratio unchanged, in a bid to sustain disinflation and support economic stability.
Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf, called for a coordinated mix of monetary, fiscal and structural reforms to consolidate the gains from disinflation and translate them into tangible welfare improvements.
“The way to convert the disinflation trend into real gains is to focus on the prices of basic items and essential needs,” Yusuf said. “Even within the current disinflation context, the major inflation drivers remain food, energy, transport, education and health. These are the areas that matter most to households and must be prioritised.”
