Nigerians react to 2025 GDP growth after NBS rebasing: Progress or illusion?

By David Akinmola

The recent rebasing of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which placed the nation’s economic output at N372.82 trillion for 2024, has sparked widespread debate among Nigerians  with many questioning whether the reported growth reflects true economic progress or is merely statistical illusion.

While government officials and economists hailed the rebased data as a positive signal of Nigeria’s evolving economic structure, ordinary citizens and analysts have voiced mixed reactions over the relevance of the figures to everyday realities such as inflation, unemployment, and living conditions.

According to the NBS, the rebasing — which updated the country’s base year from 2010 to 2021 — was necessary to capture new and emerging sectors such as digital services, fintech, e-commerce, and entertainment, which have become key drivers of modern economic activity. The exercise, the agency said, offers a more accurate reflection of Nigeria’s economic performance and places the country firmly as Africa’s largest economy.

However, the optimism has been met with skepticism on the streets and online. Many Nigerians say the impressive GDP figures stand in stark contrast to their daily struggles with rising food prices, stagnant wages, power shortages, and limited job opportunities.

“I hear the economy is growing, but I don’t see it in my pocket,” said Kehinde Afolayan, a school teacher in Lagos. “Everything is more expensive now  from rice to transport. If this is growth, then it’s only on paper.”

Others argue that while GDP rebasing is a normal statistical procedure used globally, it does not necessarily mean that the economy is performing better in real terms. Critics insist that the growth does little to reflect inclusive development or improve living standards for the majority.

Economic analyst Bimpe Adekoya explained, “Rebasing GDP is like changing the lens through which you view the economy. It may show you more sectors and a bigger number, but it doesn’t automatically mean the fundamentals have improved. If poverty, unemployment, and insecurity persist, then the numbers don’t tell the full story.”

In contrast, government officials have defended the new data, saying it provides a stronger foundation for investment decisions, economic planning, and global confidence in Nigeria’s fiscal outlook.

Minister of Finance, Budget and Economic Planning, Wale Edun, said the rebased GDP figure offers “a clearer and more comprehensive snapshot of the Nigerian economy” and provides international investors with improved data for evaluating business opportunities.

He added that the Federal Government is working to ensure the growth is translated into tangible benefits through job creation, infrastructure development, and targeted social programs.

Despite the contrasting views, some experts view the rebasing as both a wake-up call and a policy opportunity.

“This is a chance for Nigeria to align its statistical reporting with its development priorities,” said Dr. Lanre Salami, a senior economist at the Centre for Policy Research. “The rebased GDP should guide smarter fiscal policy, but it must also come with real reforms that touch the lives of citizens.”

As the debate continues, many Nigerians remain cautiously hopeful that the reported growth figures will eventually translate into improved public services, increased employment, and better quality of life — turning statistical gains into real-world progress.

Whether the 2025 GDP surge is a sign of genuine economic advancement or just a rebranded illusion, the public sentiment is clear: growth must be felt, not just calculated.