Nigeria’s $1 trillion economy goal hinges on industrial revival, MAN DG
The Director-General of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), Segun Ajayi-Kadir, has said that Nigeria’s aspiration to become a $1 trillion economy by 2030 will remain a distant dream unless the country embraces an industrial-led growth strategy.
Reacting to the Federal Government’s projection of hitting the $1 trillion mark within the next five years, Ajayi-Kadir cautioned that while the ambition is commendable, it cannot be achieved through economic rhetoric or growth in low-productivity sectors alone.
“Achieving a $1 trillion economy is not about arithmetic or wishful thinking,” he said. “It requires a strategic overhaul of the nation’s economic fundamentals, with manufacturing and industrial production at the core.”
Following Nigeria’s recently rebased nominal GDP figure of $245 billion, Ajayi-Kadir explained that reaching the $1 trillion target by 2030 would necessitate consistent annual nominal GDP growth of 12 to 14 percent assuming currency stability—or real GDP growth of 6 to 7 percent, nearly double the 3.38 percent achieved in 2024.
He stressed that current growth patterns, which rely heavily on informal trade and service sectors, will not deliver the kind of structural transformation the country needs. “Expanding the size of low-productivity sectors only deepens economic inequality, exacerbates vulnerability, and fuels jobless growth,” he warned.
Ajayi-Kadir said the path to a $1 trillion economy must be anchored in industrialisation, driven by the production of high-value, export-oriented goods, and underpinned by robust government support.
“Manufacturing must take centre stage. It’s the only sector capable of absorbing labour at scale, stimulating innovation, and generating foreign exchange through exports,” he noted.
A critical component of this vision, he added, is access to reliable and affordable power. “Without stable electricity, Nigerian manufacturers are at a severe disadvantage. No industrial policy can succeed without addressing the chronic energy supply problem.”
In addition to power, the MAN DG said core infrastructure such as roads, ports, rail systems, and digital connectivity must be modernised to boost industrial productivity and integrate Nigerian products into regional and global markets.
He also called for alignment across fiscal, trade, and monetary policies to create a stable, investor-friendly environment. “Policy inconsistencies scare off long-term investment. If we’re serious about building a $1 trillion economy, we must ensure predictability and coherence across all policy fronts,” he said.
Highlighting specific sectors with strong potential to lead industrial expansion, Ajayi-Kadir mentioned agro-processing, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and light engineering as critical value chains that could drive inclusive growth if properly supported.
“These are areas where Nigeria can build competitive advantage, generate decent jobs, and strengthen linkages across the economy,” he said.
Currency stability, he stressed, is another non-negotiable factor. “Since the $1 trillion target is dollar-denominated, any further depreciation of the naira erodes progress,” Ajayi-Kadir explained. “That’s why we continue to advocate for macroeconomic policies that support domestic production, curb inflation, and enhance competitiveness.”
He warned that growth without a solid foundation in the real sector is superficial. “Without industrial expansion, any headline GDP gains are cosmetic and unsustainable. Manufacturing must not be an afterthought it should be the engine of growth.”
Ajayi-Kadir also called attention to the work of the Industrial Revolution Working Group, urging it to fast-track the implementation of policies that can reposition Nigeria’s industrial sector as a central pillar of the national economy.
“As a country, we must choose between managing poverty and creating prosperity. Industrialisation is the only path to sustainable development and economic sovereignty,” he said.
According to the MAN boss, transforming Nigeria into a $1 trillion economy is within reach—but only if the country takes bold, coordinated steps to scale industrial production and boost local value creation.
“Without manufacturing, the dream of a $1 trillion economy will remain just that a dream,” Ajayi-Kadir concluded.
