By David Akinmola
Retail outlets of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) have adjusted the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) to ₦960 per litre, citing rising global crude prices triggered by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The price adjustment, which took effect across several major cities on Monday, reflects mounting pressure on domestic fuel pricing as international oil benchmarks climb following renewed hostilities in the Gulf region.
Industry checks indicate that the increase represents a significant jump from previous average pump prices, reversing weeks of relative stability driven by improved local refining output and exchange rate moderation.
Oil traders have linked the surge in global crude prices to supply disruption fears stemming from the intensifying conflict involving Iran and Western powers. Brent crude has risen sharply in recent days amid concerns that shipments through key export routes could be constrained if tensions escalate further.
Energy analysts say Nigeria’s deregulated downstream market remains highly sensitive to global oil price movements, given the continued reliance on crude-linked pricing benchmarks.
Although increased output from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has boosted domestic supply, petrol pricing remains influenced by international crude dynamics and foreign exchange costs.
“The current adjustment reflects global realities,” an industry source said, noting that higher crude prices directly impact landing costs and replacement values for petroleum products.
Economists warn that the increase could exert fresh pressure on inflation, particularly transportation and food costs, as logistics expenses rise nationwide.
With petrol serving as a key input across supply chains, higher pump prices may filter into consumer goods pricing, potentially slowing recent gains in price moderation.
The development also places renewed focus on exchange rate stability, as sustained geopolitical tensions could heighten global risk aversion and complicate foreign exchange inflows into emerging markets such as Nigeria.
While higher global crude prices may boost government oil revenues, the domestic cost burden remains significant for households and businesses.
Analysts note that Nigeria often experiences a paradox during oil price rallies — improved fiscal earnings on one hand, but rising energy costs and inflationary pressure on the other.
For now, market watchers say the trajectory of petrol prices will largely depend on the duration and intensity of Middle East tensions, global oil supply stability, and Nigeria’s ability to manage exchange rate pressures amid external shocks.
