By David Akinmola
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Nigeria’s economic growth outlook upward, projecting the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to expand by 3.9 per cent in 2025 and further to 4.2 per cent in 2026, reflecting renewed optimism about the nation’s reform momentum and improved macroeconomic stability.
In its latest World Economic Outlook report released yesterday, the IMF attributed the positive revision to ongoing fiscal and monetary policy reforms, foreign exchange market liberalisation, and recovery in key non-oil sectors, particularly agriculture, manufacturing, and services.
According to the Fund, Nigeria’s economic fundamentals have strengthened over the past year following decisive policy actions by the government, including fuel subsidy removal, unification of exchange rates, and renewed investment in infrastructure.
These measures, the IMF said, have helped improve transparency, reduce fiscal pressures, and create room for private-sector growth.
“The reform measures introduced by the Nigerian authorities are beginning to yield results. Improved foreign exchange liquidity, enhanced fiscal discipline, and gradual moderation in inflation are supporting stronger growth prospects,” the IMF stated.
The upgraded forecast marks a significant improvement from the Fund’s previous estimate of 3.2 per cent growth for 2025, underscoring growing investor confidence in Nigeria’s medium-term outlook.
Analysts said the IMF’s revision signals a vote of confidence in Nigeria’s economic management and reform trajectory, despite persistent challenges such as high inflation, insecurity, and infrastructure gaps.
Commenting on the development, a Lagos-based economist, Dr. Tunde Salami, said:
“The IMF’s upward review reflects improving sentiment towards Nigeria. If ongoing reforms are sustained and the government maintains fiscal discipline, growth could even surpass these projections.”
The IMF also projected that inflation, which remains elevated, will gradually ease through 2025 as monetary policy tightening takes effect and agricultural output improves.
Stronger oil production and rising non-oil exports are also expected to boost government revenues and external reserves, providing greater fiscal flexibility.
However, the Fund warned that sustaining the momentum would require consistent policy implementation, better management of fiscal risks, and accelerated diversification of the economy.
If realised, the IMF’s projection would position Nigeria among the fastest-growing large economies in sub-Saharan Africa over the next two years — a sign that recent structural reforms may finally be translating into tangible economic gains.
