By David Akinmola
Nigeria’s economic recovery gained further momentum in the second quarter of 2026 as real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth accelerated to 4.43 per cent year-on-year, driven largely by stronger performances in agriculture and services, even as the industrial sector continued to face pressure.
The latest growth rate, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), represents an improvement from the 3.89 per cent recorded in the first quarter of 2026 and the 4.23 per cent achieved in the corresponding quarter of 2025.
The expansion marks a further strengthening of economic activity after Nigeria recorded 3.87 per cent real GDP growth in 2025, compared with 3.38 per cent in 2024.
In nominal terms, aggregate GDP stood at N119.29 trillion in the second quarter, representing an 18.43 per cent increase from N100.73 trillion recorded in Q2 2025, while real GDP was estimated at N53.47 trillion.
The services sector remained the dominant driver of economic activity, accounting for 56.62 per cent of real GDP during the quarter, compared with 56.53 per cent in Q2 2025.
The sector also strengthened its growth rate to 4.60 per cent, from 3.94 per cent a year earlier, with information and communication, real estate, trade, financial and insurance services among the activities supporting the expansion.
Agriculture equally recorded a notable improvement, growing by 4.39 per cent in real terms, compared with 2.82 per cent in the corresponding quarter of 2025. The sector accounted for 26.15 per cent of real GDP during the period.
The improved agricultural performance is significant for an economy where millions of households depend directly or indirectly on farming and agro-processing for income and employment.
The oil sector also strengthened, growing by 7.31 per cent year-on-year, compared with 2.57 per cent in Q1 2026. Average daily crude oil production increased to about 1.72 million barrels per day from 1.55 million barrels in the preceding quarter.
Despite the improvement in oil production, the non-oil economy continued to dominate output, accounting for 95.84 per cent of real GDP in Q2. The non-oil sector expanded by 4.31 per cent, compared with 3.64 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025.
However, the performance was not uniform across the economy. The industrial sector grew by 3.96 per cent, significantly below the 7.46 per cent recorded in Q2 2025.
For businesses, the industrial slowdown remains a major concern, particularly amid persistent challenges around energy costs, infrastructure, access to credit, logistics and other production expenses. Private-sector stakeholders have consequently cautioned that sustaining higher GDP growth would require stronger investment in productive capacity.
The latest figures nevertheless point to a gradual strengthening of economic activity, with growth becoming increasingly supported by the non-oil economy.
For policymakers, the challenge now is to ensure that the improvement in headline GDP translates into stronger household incomes, employment, private-sector investment and improved living standards.
The 4.43 per cent expansion also remains below the Federal Government’s ambition of achieving 7 per cent annual economic growth by 2027, meaning that stronger and more broad-based expansion will be required in the quarters ahead.
President Bola Tinubu has welcomed the latest figures, describing the performance as encouraging and assuring Nigerians of stronger microeconomic outcomes. The Presidency noted that the growth was recorded across agriculture, manufacturing, oil and gas and services, with services remaining the largest contributor to output.
For the Nigerian economy, therefore, the latest GDP report provides evidence of continued recovery, but also highlights the work that remains to be done.
The immediate task is to consolidate the gains in agriculture and services, revive industrial expansion and ensure that rising output is accompanied by lower production costs, stronger investment and broader economic opportunities.
The latest growth figure may signal that the economy is moving in the right direction, but the quality, sustainability and inclusiveness of that growth will ultimately determine whether the recovery is felt beyond the statistics.
